I mentioned in an earlier post that the Gartner Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies had just been published, and this morning I've been looking at the Higher Education one, which is also just out.
Some interesting observations. Areas just reaching maturity and mainstream adoption (the plateau of productivity) include CRM for enrollment management, RFID for library management, and web services for administrative functions. Open source e-learning systems is also there, with Gartner predicting 2 to 5 years for this to reach maninstream adoption. at the moment OSS e-learning systems represent just under 20% of the market, but this is growing with the adoption of systems such as Moodle and Sakai.
Things currently wallowing in the Trough of Disollusionment include Grid Computing, E-portfolios and open source portals. The latter refers directly to uPortal, commenting that relying on an OSS framework reduces the initial acquisiton cost, but the trade off is less than leading edge functionality and reliance on internal staff and peer organisations for support and development. Some things in the trough are flagged as becoming obsolete before maturity and mainstream adoption is reached, and this includes podcasting learning content, as it's noted that podcasts are being quietly incorporated into other technologies including social software and other broadcasting tools.
Sitting on top of the Peak of Inflated Expectations, about to hurtle downwards, are Virtual Worlds, ITIL (just as we're about to implement it) Identity and Access Management, and Mashup's in HE. One day maybe I'll understand what a mash up is - I understand it's nothing to do with making tea.