Wednesday, 12 November 2014

Making good decisions

Today's talk at the CIO lunch was from Noreena Hertz who was described as a decision making guru. Her book, Eyes Wide Open, is the conclusions from her research into how we can make better decisions in these complex, challenging times.

These were her tips:

Don't blindly follow experts. They get things wrong.
The IBM president who in 1948 said there's room in the world for 5 computers
Or Bill Gates, who said in 2004 spam will be solved in 2 years.
Experts no better than a monkey throwing a dart at a board.

Become a smarter information hunter gatherer
Today, knowledge has been democratised. We can all gather it.
Local knowledge is very valuable.
Listen to the wisdom within an organisation
Also, information widely available of people's own experiences in many areas.
Old fashioned cooperation and collaboration very important.
Gratuitous clip of baby pandas collaborating to avoid taking medicine.
Use Google trends, look at what search terms are being used. All as valuable as published data.
Apparently the PMs office tracks certain search terms and there was chaos in number 10 on 6 October 2011 when there was a huge peak in the search for "Jobs." Work it out :-)

Seek out divergent points of view.
We tend to like getting information that confirms what we believe. Yet innovation is not just about creation of ideas but about their destruction.
Need to seek out people who disagree with us.
Who's our challenger in chief, and are listening to them?

Create teams based on difference
Vast body of evidence that diverse teams solve problems better and are more innovative.
Bletchley park employed diverse teams. Not just mathematicians, but philosophers, Egyptian scholars, classicists. Critical to them cracking enigma code.

Get into decision making shape
Emotions affect decision making.
Stock markets react to how national football teams perform.
Moods affect decisions. Notice what mood you're in.
Physical shape also important. Worst decisions often made when you're tired.
Also, hunger, thirst.

Be careful of the stories you tell yourself
We're not unique.
Even selfies were around in the twenties

And finally, carve out time to think. Every day.

- Posted using BlogPress from my iPad

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